The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said that it expects Bulgaria's gross domestic product (GDP) to fall by 4.1% in 2020, to be followed by a recovery in 2021 and 2022 driven by domestic demand and exports.
Bulgaria's economy is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2021 and then by 3.7% in 2022, the OECD said in the preliminary version of its December 2020 Economic Outlook.
Low public debt and high fiscal reserves, combined with EU funding, allow Bulgaria's government to sustain and expand its fiscal assistance, which is central to the strength of recovery, the OECD noted.
The government's wage subsidy scheme is expected to contain the rise of the unemployment rate to 6.4% in 2020 from 4.2% in 2019. Unemployment is then expected to decrease to 6.1% in 2021 and 5.1% in 2022.
Consumer price inflation is seen slowing from 3.1% last year to 1.6% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021, before speeding up to 1.8% in 2022.