Three days before the official start of campaigning ahead of Bulgaria’s April 4 parliamentary elections, the results of a poll by Alpha Research show that there could be up to six or seven groups in the next National Assembly.
Done between February 26 and March 1, the results of the Alpha Research poll show Boiko Borissov’s GERB party as having 28.5 per cent of the support of those who intend to vote, and the Bulgarian Socialist Party 23.2 per cent.
The party formed around cable television presenter Slavi Trifonov has 13.3 per cent, with the Movement for Rights and Freedoms close behind at 12.5 per cent.
The reformist Democratic Bulgaria coalition has 5.7 per cent, the political movement of former ombudsman Maya Manolova and anti-government protest organisers the “Poison Trio” 4.5 per cent, and Krassimir Karakachanov’s ultra-nationalist VMRO 3.7 per cent – just below the four per cent threshold to win seats in the National Assembly.
The poll was done among 1013 adult Bulgarians and was co-financed by Alpha Research and television station bTV. The method was direct standardised interviews, with two-stage stratification by region and type of settlement, with quotas by gender, age and level of education.
Alpha Research found that 15.3 per cent of those who said that they would vote in Bulgaria’s April 4 elections were still hesitant about which party to support.
The agency’s Boryana Dimitrova said that this percentage was high and could turn the vote around.
About 52.5 per cent of those polled firmly intended to vote, an increase of three percentage points since Alpha Research’s poll at the end of 2020, while 22.4 per cent did not intend voting and 25 per cent had not decided.
Since the ultra-nationalist “United Patriots” coalition broke up, VMRO had emerged as the party with the highest chance of representing this niche in Bulgaria’s next Parliament.
About 24 per cent expect that there will be many irregularities in the election, 23 per cent believe that the election will be fair, while 45 per cent said that even if there are irregularities, they will not be such as to affect the fairness of the vote.